Modeling of COVID-19 cases in the province of Davao Oriental

Abstract

COVID sickness 2019 (Coronavirus) radically carried dread and awfulness to each occupant of this planet. It caused casualties that disrupted day-to-day life basis. In addition, the number of Philippines’ cases of COVID-19 is still a significant threat, especially in the province of Davao Oriental, as the focal point of this study. The data values for this study are from March 2020 to July 2022 and generated a two-month forecast from August – September 2022. For testing the stationarity, the auto.arima command was employed for the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function in identifying the candidate model. The purpose of this study is to use ARIMA to make a two-month forecast and ascertain the trend in the number of COVID-19 cases. The candidate model was identified and utilized from RStudio based on the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) criterion value, normality and residuals, and a two-sample independent test to determine its significance, ARIMA (1,0,1) with a nonzero mean was the most popular model. The forecast showed a significant increase in COVID-19 cases from August – September 2022. Consequently, the findings of this study will serve as a tool to implement strategies or policies in controlling the spread of the disease. It is recommended to utilize other methods or software to improve this concluded work.