Mathematical modelling of rice production in Davao Oriental

Abstract

This study aimed to forecast rice production from its actual observation in the next two years of data. Obtaining a model through the ARIMA method for rice production is ARIMA(0 1 2) (0 1 2)4. Results show that the model has satisfactorily fitted their specified series and diagnostic checking for the model's accuracy. The dynamically forecast values of series were following the trend pattern of the past values of their assigned ascertained values that were occurring in upward direction indicating a good outcome for the study. This might facilitate folks for a higher understanding on the doable changes in values of the data series gathered and may even help the government for any reform that will bring the upward quality of production of crops, in agriculture and particularly, the economy of the country as a whole. Keywords: mathematics, rice production, forecasting, univariate time series modelling, AR/MA Model, Philippines